Abdülkadir Özkan: "Inflation numbers are confusing"

Abdülkadir Özkan: "Inflation numbers are confusing"
Date: 4.8.2023 15:00

Milli Gazete columnist Abdulkadir Özkan writes on Türkiye economy. Here is the full article.

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A number of economic studies reveal different results according to the difference of those who do it. However, the researches in question are carried out in this country, not in outer space.
For example, the hunger and poverty line figures made every month differ from institution to institution. In addition, there are serious differences between the monthly and annual inflation figures announced every month.
This casts a shadow on the credibility of the research and explanations. However, the announced figures are effective even if they are not decisive in the decisions taken by the state. Especially since the figures announced by TÜİK significantly determine the decisions of the state, the decisions taken give negative results for those with low and fixed incomes.
In fact, according to TUIK figures, the adjustments made to retirees and employees are conducive to an increase in the trouble that a large part of them constantly experience. In other words, those with narrow and fixed incomes are left unprotected against inflation. Moreover, the figures announced by an institution of the state have an important place in determining the economic life.
Without further ado, the differences between the statements made at a point where inflation is out of control, not only because of the trust in the government, but also because of the differences between various institutions, the statements made every month become unreliable.
As such, one cannot help but think that not disclosing the figures in question would be more beneficial to those with low and fixed incomes than to explain them. For example, the difference between the monthly and annual inflation figures announced by TURKSTAT and ENAG yesterday is enough to surprise people and weaken the confidence in the statements made.
However, the results of the regularly conducted and announced research on the economic situation must be reliable.
Otherwise, when the trust in these researches is reset in general, conducting these researches only helps to present some wrongs to the society as right, but it does not cure the society's problems. In fact, the large differences between the figures announced destroy the seriousness of the matter.
Considering the monthly and annual inflation figures announced yesterday from this point of view, it is not possible for people to trust the results of the research. For example, according to TUIK, the inflation figure for July is 9.49 percent, and the annual rate is 47.83 percent.
According to the independent inflation research group (ENAG), inflation in July was 13.18 percent and 122.88 percent annually. There is a difference of 100 percent to 200 percent between the results of the two studies.
As such, people's trust weakens, no matter how serious and inclusive the studies are. In this respect, I think it would be useful if research institutions formed a unity in the items they researched, that is, if they formed a unity in the items they base the research on and if they gave the details of the results they announced while making their explanations.
In particular, the results of the research announced by TURKSTAT, as I pointed out above, are decisive in some decisions. As such, it leaves the weaker sections of society unprotected in the decisions taken to combat inflation.
In conclusion, we can say that there will be differences not only in inflation surveys, but also in the hunger and poverty line figures that are made and announced every month, but these differences should not cause the researches to lose their credibility.


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