We invested in this corner last week the possibility of setting up a third alliance in Turkey theoretically on the table. First of all, I have to state that the subject attracts a wide range of attention.
In fact, this is already expected. Because Turkey's existing alliances or ignored by the possibility of changing the direction of this alliance in the political equation due to make an assessment and it may cause incomplete reading will take the wrong political decisions.
As a political scientist, I have mentioned the issue of alliance a few times in the corner, with the intention of drawing attention to this. Perceiving alliances as an irreversible union once established would be a highly problematic perspective.
On the other hand, I think another aspect of the article attracting attention is that everyone has different expectations or predictions about the subject.
For this reason, when our readers, for example, who build their political position only on the AK Party opposition, read the same article, they may perceive the articles on the alliance as the basis of a possible alliance with the AK Party on the right, while some readers can envision a center-right alliance that does not have the CHP in their minds but is positioned against the AK Party.
However, the ways in which the alliance is formed and its experience show that alliances are not of a static character. Many factors such as the changing conjuncture of the country, changes in the internal structures of the parties, the number of parties, and the transformation of the political system can shape alliances.
The main theme in our articles is especially aimed at drawing attention to this. Because we anticipate that we are going through a period in which the alliances change direction in politics.
See, public opinion is clearly in the past elections in Turkey in recent months as a divided nation and the republic, actually we do not see this as a clear polarization state.
Moreover, as reflected in all areas of research, Turkey's second-largest party in the position of "unstable" will take place.
In other words, we are talking about a new mass that uses its political preference neither for the Republic nor the Nation, and who is cold to both.
Well, who is this audience?
Of course, we are talking about the mass that broke with the People's Alliance. A mass that feels the need to break away from the AK Party and MHP to which it is a member.
So, would this mass turn to the Nation Alliance as an alternative?
Perhaps, more accurately, why would a voter who left the People's Alliance turn to the Nation Alliance?
For this, the Nation Alliance needs to create a fundamental alternative excitement, which is not the kind of thing that can be settled with just one discourse. The parties that make up the Nation Alliance should come together and set out around a joint program with a concrete, accessible but more importantly, reassuring manifesto, and carry out their journey with this sensitivity.
When you evaluate it from this aspect, it is necessary to say that there is no such public power and perception as of today, but there is no orientation from the Republic to the Nation.
I am of the opinion that the performance of Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu, especially after the Istanbul elections, will be an important factor in directing the people who will break away from the People's Alliance to the Nation Alliance.
After more than a year, I can easily say that at the point reached today, Mr. İmamoğlu caused a loss of confidence, contrary to the mood he created before the election.
I mention this not as a determination based on any performance but as a measurement of general perception without going into details here.
It should not be forgotten that the vast majority of the mass that will break away from the People's Alliance, the mass that is registered as the undecided of today, is the liberal-conservative mass that would prefer to stay in the middle rather than slipping into extremes.
Indeed, precisely because we are talking about the possibility of a reversal appears therefore the alliance in Turkey. Of course, each party will decide where to stand in the alliance game according to their own priorities. Let's see what we will see.