Public opinion polls conducted with possible election scenarios clearly reveal the dissatisfaction of the voters with the government, and reveal that the process did not create the expected positive effects for the opposition.
Concentrating on the reasons why the opposition could not benefit from this decrease while the power of doing/to have done and social support of the government decrease, and at least making some inferences about its origins, seems to be a necessity in terms of contributing to the policy-making processes. Considering the last year's performance of the ruling party, which some parties on the opposition wing accuse of showing authoritarian tendencies, it can be observed that it has not met the expectations even in its own sociological base in terms of "corruption, poverty and prohibition".
In fact, it should be noted in parentheses that the government has not performed well in terms of its twenty-year performance. However, the important thing here is to understand the change in the viewpoint of the ruling party voters.
This situation has become a quality that even an ordinary citizen can test through natural observation, which can be considered the most realistic public opinion research.
It is easily seen that there is a change above the average even in the short dialogues that can be made with next-door neighbors, friends and relatives who have voted for the ruling party for years.
On the other hand, the opinions of the voters who distanced themselves from the ruling party and felt alienated about the opposition parties do not differ greatly.
Of course, a possible rupture in the ruling party is in a position to draw limited results in favor of some parties, with the effect of local dynamics to a certain extent, but it is still too early to state whether this will cause a change in power or not.
It is widely agreed that the most important argument of the ruling party in the elections, which should be held in 2023 under normal conditions but cannot be predicted when it will be held before or after, will be the "survival problem".
Of course, the language that the opposition will use in the face of the possible survival discourse of the government will of course be of great importance. It is obvious that discourses with the theme of "democratization" have been developed, as in the example of the greatly strengthened parliamentary system so far.
However, it is also a fact that these discourses did not have the expected effect, since they missed the point of changing their preferences and how much they appealed to the expected electorate.
While these impressions are transformed into stereotypes, accompanied by entertainment in parody programs, it becomes a necessity to create new road maps to replace the dysfunctional policies.
For this reason, it is necessary to consider the following question marks and propositions.
How will the masses who broke away from the ruling party but perceive the democratization discourse as a door to foreign intervention be persuaded?
If these masses cannot be persuaded and they continue to support the ruling party, will the possibility of the government becoming more authoritarian?
Will the ruling party losing power through elections or the opposition parties failing to win the elections be able to accept the election results?
These propositions are very important for Turkish politics, which is on the verge of experiencing one of the most important breaking points in its history, and it is not easy to give an answer.
Because, as it is seen in the examples of Iran and Egypt, while it is a fact that political breaks in Turkey occur only with coups without social support, it is necessary to analyze well with which motives the social support will evolve.
Let's finish with a short example.
As it will be remembered, the AK Party succeeded in coming to power by gaining broad social support on the eve of an important break after the 2001 crisis. Although it had the open support of European and American leaders, the AK Party came to power through elections with broad social support.
However, there is a general confusion about how the election processes will work in today's Turkey. Uncertain feelings about the future predominate in both the ruling party voters and the opposition party voters. There is a period in which the distances between the voters and the parties are increasing. This is a situation that should be taken into account. We need to think more about it all together.