Decrease in growth, rise in inflation!

Medium Term Program (MTP) for the period 2024-2026 has been announced. According to the OVP, the 2023 growth target is increased from 5 percent in the previous program to 4.4 percent; For 2024, it was reduced from 5.5 percent to 4 percent. The 2023 inflation forecast, which was 24.9 percent in the previous MTP, increased to 65 percent and the 2024 inflation forecast to 33 percent.

According to the MTP, the "average dollar rate" is expected to be 23.90 liras in 2023, 36.80 liras in 2024, 43.90 liras in 2025 and 47.80 liras in 2026.

The Presidential Decision regarding the approval of the Medium Term Program (MTP), which includes the 3-year targets and policies of the Turkish economy, was published in the repeated issue of the Official Gazette.

With the MTP, which was prepared by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Strategy and Budget Presidency and covering the period of 2024-2026, basic economic dimensions and targets were determined.

Accordingly, this year's realization forecast for growth was 4.4 percent. It is predicted that the economy will grow by 4 percent in 2024, 4.5 percent in 2025, and 5 percent in 2026.

Inflation is estimated to be 65 percent at the end of this year, while the inflation target is set as 33 percent for next year, 15.2 percent for 2025 and 8.5 percent for 2026.

BUDGET DEFICIT WILL EXCEED 2.6 TRILLION LIRA IN 2024

According to the MTP, the budget deficit is projected to be 1.6 trillion liras in 2023, 2.65 trillion liras in 2024, 1.82 trillion liras in 2025 and 1.82 trillion liras in 2026. It is predicted that the ratio of budget deficit to gross domestic product will be 6.4 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent at the end of the program period.

In the program, the unemployment rate will be 10.1 percent at the end of this year, and the target for next year is 10.3 percent, 9.9 percent for 2025 and 9.3 percent for 2026.

FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT CONTINUES

While it is estimated that exports will reach 255 billion dollars at the end of 2023, it is aimed to reach 267 billion dollars in 2024, 283.6 billion dollars in 2025, and 302.2 billion dollars at the end of the program. It is predicted that imports will be 367 billion dollars at the end of this year, 372.8 billion dollars in 2024, 388.9 billion dollars in 2025 and 414 billion dollars in 2026.

2026 EXPECTATION IN DOLLAR 47.80 LIRA

The per capita income target is 12 thousand 415 dollars for 2023, 12 thousand 875 dollars for 2024, 13 thousand 717 dollars for 2025 and 14 thousand 855 dollars for 2026.

According to the MTP projections, the dollar rate is expected to be 23.90 liras in 2023, 36.80 liras in 2024, 43.90 liras in 2025 and 47.80 liras in 2026.