The Kashgar-Osh railway line, which is included in China's Eurasian Transcontinental Railway project, will be the gateway of the countries in the region not only to Moscow, but also to the east. This could mean a decrease in dependence on Moscow.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan can be seen as an opportunity to re-establish relations between the Taliban and Russia. On the other hand, not making or preventing the Silk Railway project can be considered as an important issue for Russia.
Moscow may be considering that the USA has a desire to reach the Fergana Valley through ethnicity, nationalism and beliefs through Afghanistan geographically and to create chaos in this region, and in this case, the countries of the region, China and Russia, will not gain from these conflicts.
Opening new problem areas to the Ukraine-Russia problem may adversely affect the Russian state in favor of the USA in military and economic terms.
India and Fergana Valley
It is unthinkable for India, which is close to this region due to the historical arrival of the Mughal Khan from the Fergana Valley, to stay away from regional problems and the policies of the Chinese state, as it will also affect the regional policies in the Kashmir border issue and China. As it will be disturbed by terrorist organizations that are likely to increase in the region, it will disturb India that this region is dragged into chaos and turns into a geography that different organizations can use.
Since the future relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban will disturb India, it can be predicted that they will provide weapons and training support to anti-Taliban groups.
Pakistan and Fergana Valley
Although America has announced its withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is estimated that it will continue its operations in the region through established relations that have been going on for 20 years. In order to do this, we can talk about the need for secure bases near Pakistan and Kabul. In this context, Pakistan said no to the request for a base, which is highly likely to be used by the United States in its operations in Afghanistan.
With the Taliban's gaining power in Afghanistan and the decrease in India's influence in the region, it can be stated that the indirect influence of China, which has good relations with Pakistan, will increase in Afghanistan.
Iran and Fergana Valley
It is unthinkable that Iran, which has close relations with al-Qaeda and the Taliban, remains indifferent to the new era that will occur in Afghanistan. It will take initiatives to take its place in the new game in the Fergana Valley, knowing that the operations to be carried out by the USA in Afghanistan and the Fergana Valley will reflect on its own country in the long run, as well as working to spread the Shiite belief in the Fergana Valley and increase the effectiveness of Iran.