Fikret Guzeller: "Turkey-Afghanistan and Fergana Valley"

Fikret Guzeller: "Turkey-Afghanistan and Fergana Valley"
Date: 30.7.2021 16:00

Milli Gazete columnist Fikret Guzeller writes on Turkey-Afghanistan and Fergana Valley. Here is the full article.

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It should be noted that homeland security does not start from the border line. Turkey's security starts from Bosnia and Herzegovina in the West and Central Asia in the East.
It is necessary to see that the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan is not only a result but also the beginning of a new era. The USA will implement the strategies of proxy and subcontractor wars in ethnic, nationalist and faith-based conflicts that will begin in the region in the new period, and will aim to ensure that the youth of the region unwittingly die for the interests of the USA.
For this, it will need a safe zone that will provide safe entry and exit to Afghanistan and can be used for human intelligence and electronic intelligence. If this is an airport, it will also be able to carry weapons and ammunition to the forces involved in the proxy war.
On the other hand, there will be a need for a door that will provide safe entry and exit to the country for NGOs that will work to provide assistance to women, children and the elderly who will be victims of conflicts. It is known to the world that some of the NGOs play a role on behalf of intelligence agencies. Kabul Airport will be able to assume the role of a safe door for NGOs.
In addition, with the security of the airport, the transfer and shipments of weapons, humanitarian aid, military personnel and intelligence personnel to Afghanistan by airways can be controlled, and it will be easier to obtain intelligence in this area.
Considering all these explanations, Kabul Airport will be vital in future operations for the USA.
In order to provide all these opportunities to the USA, our policies in Afghanistan and Fergana Valley must be in full harmony with the USA in order for it to take charge in the region. So is there such a situation? Namely;
* Possible conflicts between the Turkic Republics in the Fergana Valley may adversely affect Turkey in terms of its long-standing bilateral relations with the Turkic Republics, pushing Turkey into a new multilateral problematic diplomacy process,
* Due to the fact that the parties likely to conflict in the region are Muslims, our country and bilateral relations with Islamic countries will be adversely affected, and if sectarian support is given to states in these conflicts, sectarian conflicts may arise in the Islamic world -as in the example of Yemen- (Iran and Saudi Arabia)
* The attacks of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda on the regions of Uzbek and other elements, which are Turkey's historical friendship, will negatively affect our country's relations and interests,
* Since a possible conflict in the Fergana Valley will also affect Russia and China, it may have negative repercussions on our relations with Russia and China and on our country's policies,
* It can be evaluated that new problematic windows may be opened in our relations with India and Pakistan, which we do not have direct problems with, and that it is possible for us to face different policies with Iran.
In the light of all these determinations, since our country may face new problems with Russia and China, its reflections may be reflected in Syria, Mediterranean, Aegean, Cyprus and Black Sea policies, and our country may become isolated in the international platform.
Countries' policies, effects and results create short, medium and long-term effects. With the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, it can be foreseen in the short term that new alliances and armed structures will be formed and that these structures will take place in the conflict area. The transfer of the problem to the Fergana Valley may be possible in the medium term. For this purpose, it will be aimed to create an atmosphere of chaos, chaos and conflict in Afghanistan, which will be used as a springboard, and then the economic investments of the countries, educational support and military agreements will come into play.
Our country initially acted in accordance with the US policies in Syria, Libya and Iraq policies and it has been seen that the results were not in favor of our country. Our country has faced the USA on many issues and as a result of the USA's acting in accordance with its current interests, it has become an enemy country and has been damaged in many issues such as the S-400 and F-35.
The USA wants to use the current sympathy towards our country and the military power of our country in its favor in Afghanistan. When our country takes part in this field militarily, it will be responsible for external security and may be unaware of the activities to be carried out inside. In addition to this, Turkey will most likely bear the economic and military burden of security.
Due to the importance of Karzai Airport, various attacks may be made here in the new multilateral balances that will occur within the country. The size and variety of these attacks and the lack of support of the troops there will pose some risks.
Considering the balances of the countries and the region, the basic questions are as follows;
* Are the political interests of our country and the USA in Afghanistan, Fergana Valley fully compatible in the short and long term?
* Do the regional political interests and country relations and balances of our country and the USA show similarity?
* If our country is going to put our soldiers on the field in the interests of the USA, which demand of our country will be met or which national interest is in question?
* If the blood of our soldiers will be shed, for whose benefit will our soldiers fall to the ground?
It should not be forgotten that our military is only the Soldier of Turkey and of Peace.


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