The Iranian Research Center (IRAM), an Ankara-based think-tank, published a report on Tuesday that ponders the domestic and external challenges that recently reelected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is likely to face in his second term.
The 23-page report, entitled “The New Era of Rouhani”, focuses on the policies the reelected president will likely pursue within a local and regional context.
The report specifically focuses on Rouhani’s relations with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the U.S. and the West in general, Saudi Arabia and the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Turkey.
It also mulls the future of Iran’s 2015 landmark nuclear deal with the 5+1 group of nations.
Highlighting the differences to have occasionally emerged between Rouhani and Khamenei, the report notes the relatively limited power of the presidency in Iran’s “Wilayat al-Faqih” system.
The report goes on to assert that frictions between the two leaders are likely to arise due to Iran’s complex domestic political situation.
It also predicts that Rouhani will come up against Iran’s influential Revolutionary Guards Corps on the domestic front and the Trump administration on the international stage.
Turkey, meanwhile, the report states, has the capacity to offset Iran in the Middle Eastern arena and could -- under certain circumstances -- draw closer to Tehran in the short-term future.
“Rouhani’s second presidential term will largely be shaped by [U.S. President Donald] Trump's regional and global policies,” the report states, noting that Rouhani’s first term had largely been shaped by the policies of former U.S. President Barack Obama.