Modi’s right-wing government, which came to power in May 2014 after securing a landslide, is now halfway through a term that has seen several voices of dissent over its policies, especially the recent demonetization decision. Some analysts say the mood in the country is so disillusioned and even directly opposed to the BJP in some parts of the country that its chances of repeated the success of 2014 in a 2019 general election are greatly reduced.
On Saturday, the states of Punjab and Goa will go to the polls while three other states -- including the country’s most populous, Uttar Pradesh, which is home to 200 million people -- will vote by March 8. The final votes from all five will be counted on March 11. Uttar Pradesh, which has the highest number of assembly and parliamentary seats, is crucial for any political party wanting to secure a short- or long-term future.
“These elections are very crucial, especially Uttar Pradesh, and will have definitely impact on the 2019 elections,” Rajiv Kumar, a political analyst at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, told Anadolu Agency. Kumar said that any party that wins Uttar Pradesh (UP) this year will gain huge momentum in the run-up to the general election. “UP is such a huge state and it has 80 seats in parliament... In the 2014 elections as well, Mr. Modi secured a huge mandate from UP,” he said.
Adnan Farooqui, of the department of political science at Jamia Millia Islamia in New Delhi, said: “What is important is that if BJP doesn’t perform well in Uttar Pradesh this year and is unable to form the government, it may show some indication of what is going to happen in the 2019 general polls.” The results “might also motivate several political parties in the country to have informal understanding like forming an alliance route for the [2019] elections,” Farooqui said.