Muhammed Maruf: "It is necessary to manage the economy, not the perceptions"

Muhammed Maruf: "It is necessary to manage the economy, not the perceptions"
Date: 10.6.2022 13:00

Milli Gazete columnist Muhammed Maruf writes on economy. Here is the full article.

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The current government has been claiming to be successful in the economy based on macroeconomic data since the day it took office. However, instead of taking steps that will develop the country in real terms and have a positive effect on the welfare level of the citizens, it has preferred to continue with the perception management in the economy.
 
The low exchange rate and high interest rate policies, which were started to be implemented by Kemal Derviş in the first years of power, were continued without touching the point of the comma. In periods when zero interest and even negative interest rates were applied all over the world, Turkey was indebted with relatively very high interest rates, and the exchange rate was kept low, creating a basis for an import boom.
 
In this process, the first great effort of the government to create an economic perception was about IMF debts. Turkey's relatively low-interest loans to the IMF, according to the conditions of the international financial markets, were paid using higher-interest loans from the global financial elite.
 
In this way, the perception that Turkey's foreign debts were finished was created by saying "We have paid all our debts to the IMF" in the election squares, and this perception has been created for years. However, contrary to the perception during the current ruling period, the foreign debt of our country has reached the level of 450 billion dollars at the point reached today, from 130 billion dollars.
 
Another economic data that the government tries to create a perception by playing with the numbers is the national income. Government officials state that the national income increased significantly during their period, and the national income per capita increased. In this regard, first of all, it should be stated that since 2002, there have been great increases in national income levels on the basis of countries all over the world.
 
However, the increase in national income in Turkey remained quite low compared to the countries where we were at the same level in 2002. In countries where we were at the same level of national income per capita in 2002, today the national income is twice our level. Moreover, the current national income figures in Turkey were increased twice, in 2007 and 2015, by changing the calculation method on paper.
 
With the account change made in 2008, the national income per capita was reduced from 5480 dollars to 7500 dollars on paper, and with the regulation made in 2015, it was increased from 9250 dollars to 11,000 dollars on paper. Despite the fact that there was a period in which the national income of countries increased at a high level all over the world until 2018 and the national income figures were increased twice on paper, at the point reached today, contrary to the perception that the ruling circles are trying to create, the national income per capita in our country has fallen to the level of third world countries and the decline continues.
 
It is possible to increase the above-mentioned examples of efforts to create an economic perception. Since the government has not been able to make real improvements in the economy since the first day, it has preferred to save the day with perception and it has come to this day. Today, however, while no real solution can be produced for the severe economic crisis, it is tried to save the day with temporary but heavy-duty measures such as currency-protected deposits, and it is aimed to create a positive impression by creating a perception on the numbers. It was recently announced that the Turkish economy grew by 7.3% in the first quarter.
 
What would it mean if the economy increased 100% on paper in a process where our citizens could not even meet their most basic needs and production facilities became unable to produce due to high input costs? What would be the benefit if inflation was declared as 1% in a period when the prices of the most basic necessities of people increased 3 times in a year? Any number or macroeconomic indicator that does not increase the welfare of our citizens and does not correspond in real terms has no value. If concrete steps are not taken to manage the economy, not perceptions, by changing the mentality that has led us to this day, many more years will be wasted and we may experience much greater difficulties.

YEREL HABERLER

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