What do the choices we make say about us? Since the presidential election has not concluded, it would not be appropriate for us to talk about the outcome in this case.
According to the first round elections, the fact that no candidate has reached the result of 50+1 indicates that there is no winner of the election.
However, this situation is a source of motivation for the candidate who is close to the 50% limit.
Therefore, if we need to make an assessment on the election results, we need to make an assessment on the basis of parliamentary status.
It is necessary to evaluate the winner of these elections from two different perspectives. It is the comparison of the current number of deputies with the number of deputies obtained and the proportional comparison of the previous election with the current election.
First of all, when we look at the votes received in the 2018 and 2023 parliamentary elections, the table appears as follows:
People's Alliance 49.50% ( AK Party 42.56 - 35.63, MHP 11.10 - 10.08 YRP 0 - 2.81 BBP 0 - 0.98)
Nation Alliance 35.04% ( CHP 22.65 - 25.35 GOOD 9.96 - 9.69)
Labor and Freedom Alliance 10.56% (YSP 11.70 - 8.83 0 - TİP 1.73)
Ata Alliance received 2.43% (ZP 0 - 2.23 AP 0 - 0.20) votes.
In the table, we see a 7-point decrease in the AK Party votes. There is a decrease of 1 point in MHP.
Considering that YRP and BBP received about 4 points of the 8-point decrease in total, we can evaluate that a 4-point reaction shifted to CHP, and some to IYI or ZP, over the probable Deva, Future and Saadet.
As a result, we can understand that there is a 4-point shift from the ruling bloc to the opposition. I am of the opinion that the increase of approximately 3 points in the votes of the CHP was achieved through Saadet, Deva and Future.
Because we can say that some of the votes that the CHP received in the last elections have shifted to MP, ZP and partially to TİP in these elections. I assume that the CHP's expectation of an increase between the two elections only consolidates these floating votes.
On the other hand, we see that the IYI Party gained a vote rate close to the previous election in this election. We can understand from here that the IYI Party could not put anything on it between the two elections.
When we look at the wind caught by the opposition, an opposition party that sees itself as a candidate to be the center of the right would be expected to receive more votes.
However, the Iyi Party's indecisive stance within the Table of Six and its preference to be the key party rather than the central party prevented it from gaining the support of the broad masses of the people.
We see that the YSP lost votes in these elections. Considering that it did not nominate a presidential candidate, it would be expected that a party that diverts all its energies for the parliamentary elections would at least protect the vote.
However, it shows us that the loss of votes in the West cannot spread the political content throughout the country.
When we look at the current and the number of deputies obtained by the parties, the situation is as follows:
AK Party: 295 – 268, CHP: 146 – 169, HDP/YSP: 67 – 61, MHP: 49 – 50, GOOD: 43 – 43, YRP: 0 – 5, TİP: 0 – 4
When we look at these results, it is obvious that the People's Alliance is a loss compared to the last election. Although this is seen as a failure, it would not be realistic to consider that they did not lose their parliamentary majority as a failure in an election entered in an environment of long-term power and crises.
However, the failure of the opposition bloc to gain a majority as a whole is a failure. We cannot expect a CHP to get a majority, and we cannot consider it a failure when we consider the political spectrum of the country, but it is a failure that even the total number of deputies of the entire opposition bloc cannot get a majority. This failure applies to all alliance components.
We can read the evaluation of election results proportionally in this way, but it is even more important to think about the social implications of these results. We need to keep thinking about this.