Mustafa Kaya: "Famous mother's word and Ukraine"

Mustafa Kaya: "Famous mothers word and Ukraine"
Date: 16.1.2022 16:00

Milli Gazete columnist Mustafa Kaya writes on Ukraine-Russia tension. Here is the full article.

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The showdown over Ukraine has entered an even more dangerous phase. As it is known, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, one of the main goals of NATO in the process that has continued until today was to expand towards the east, towards the Black Sea. With the accession of Romania and Bulgaria in 2004, the circle narrowed, and this time Ukraine and Georgia became the target. The greatest tragedy of the 20th century is the collapse of the Soviet Union, said Russian President Vladimir Putin and started to take an extremely aggressive attitude towards the initiatives of the United States and Western countries.
The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was one of them. With Putin, Russia ceased to be a country that only entered into a struggle for dominance in Asia against the West. He tried to turn the crises in different geographies into opportunities in his favor. Trying to make its influence permanent in the Mediterranean after the events in Syria, Russia started to be active in Libya as well. In a sense, these initiatives were aimed at starting the defense against NATO outside of Asia. Although Putin did not express the rhetoric that his actions were aimed at building a bipolar world like the Cold War era, Russia's footprints were giving signs towards this goal. However, lastly, the risk of hot conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine made Russia's policies more visible, and NATO's involvement in this made the crisis even more global.
So, why does what happened in Ukraine have the potential to become a global problem?
Why might the USA and Russia feel the need to carry the crisis to official talks?
Under current circumstances, there are allegations that Russia has sent 100,000 troops to regions close to the Ukrainian border. There are also comments that this many soldiers can only be deployed for the occupation. First of all, the USA and NATO think that the consequences of such a situation will upset the regional balances and even have global consequences. Ukraine is also constantly having problems with Russia after the USSR's withdrawal from the stage of history. Although Russia in the last crisis said, "We have no intention of attacking Ukraine and we have no plan in this direction," it has not been able to fully convince anyone. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman did not refrain from showing a stick, with the statement that "Russia will either choose diplomacy or face the West". Ukraine, which has written its NATO membership goal in its own constitution, is focused on the outcome of the negotiations. NATO also insists on Ukraine's membership. Russia, which sees this situation as a direct threat rather than an indirect one, does not even want to hear this demand. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has made his stances clear by saying that "NATO's eastward expansion will pose unacceptable risks for his country." On the other hand, Putin did not hesitate to respond to the US's resentment by emphasizing that if the West insists on Ukraine's participation in NATO, "they will take the necessary technical military measures".
After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region continue to clash with Ukrainian forces. More than 15,000 people have died in the past year. What is happening in this region, where the Russians live intensely, is described as "genocide" by Putin. It should be known that these mutually extreme evaluations are an effort to convey a message to third circles rather than the words spoken with the aim of making the interlocutors announce to each other.
Answering the questions of the press on the subject last Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, “Our patience has run out. The arrogant demands and attitudes of the West brought the problem to this point. We will respond to their demands in writing next week” statement shows that the risk of hot conflict has increased in solving the problem. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also demonstrated this by saying that "there is a danger of armed conflict in Europe".
On the other hand, Turkey takes a close stance to NATO's theses without putting any finger on this issue. Russia, which made a note of the use of Turkish UAVs and SİHAs in the Donbas region of Ukraine, but did not turn it into a crisis, tries not to confront Turkey directly. Russia, which closely follows Turkey's crisis with the United States, aims to keep itself as an alternative in Turkey's eyes. Although Turkey stays close to Ukraine, it does not want the processes carried out with Russia in Syria and Libya to be damaged.
As a result, our region may be at risk of a more dangerous hot conflict than Syria. The Black Sea is also likely to warm up. However, despite all this, it is not difficult to guess that no one will want such a hot conflict after a point. Western countries will primarily consider increasing the severity of economic sanctions.
In addition, we do not know exactly what Russia will respond to next week, but it is also very clear that it will not say "ok, you can take Ukraine to NATO". In such a situation, living with problems for a certain period of time seems to be the closest option for both parties.
So, how can the crisis be frozen? Russia may withdraw a significant portion of its 100,000 troops, allegedly on the Ukrainian border. NATO sees this as a diplomatic victory, presenting it as Russia's retreat. Thus, the problem is postponed for now. Ukraine wouldn't be too happy about it. Because Ukraine no longer wants to live under the constant threat of Russia. He thinks that it is not possible in the long run to spend more days with the worry of "they came, they will come". Besides, I would like to share an interesting information. I was very surprised when I heard the claim that even the name of the country refers to the west. In the first place, I found it difficult for one of our professors to express the word Ukraine as "UK" or "Rainy".
I still think it's coercion. However, we are talking about a country that is ambitious enough to set rapprochement with NATO and the West as a goal in its constitution. In the popular saying, this dough removes more water. In this atmosphere, perhaps the best way for Turkey should be to try to remain neutral as much as possible in the Second World War. Just as Syria is not just Syria, Ukraine is not just Ukraine. There is a famous mother saying, "Everyone saves himself, it happens to you". We can explain the situation by putting this word in the center as follows; Due to the nature of the problem, it is not possible for Turkey to be directly involved in what happened. We do not recognize the annexation of Crimea anyway. We are doing it right. And yet, it seems more appropriate for Turkey's interests to carry out a balance policy that can be felt as much as possible with this stance. Although we are members of NATO, when we raise the threats we face to our Western allies over Syria, the Mediterranean and the Aegean, it would be excessive, even naive optimism, to see the gaze of those who turn their heads towards Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, as humanitarian support.
Now, if there are things that we can do for Ukraine, for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, independent of the will of others, let's do them, but let's not be the bearer of anyone's theses. If Ukraine becomes the second Syria, we may experience the same threats, perhaps more, in the Black Sea, than we face in the Mediterranean.


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