Last Thursday, an article titled "Again with Syria: PKK will be cleared, refugees will return to their homes" was published by Yılmaz Bilgen in Türkiye newspaper. There were important and interesting details in the news, which was based on Turkey's "security sources". Neither the Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the Ministry of National Defense has received any denial yet. Then, the issue should be discussed by the public and at least the political and academic circles should try to contribute to the solution by expressing their opinions. As someone who has written dozens of articles on Syria, I would like to convey my opinions on a few issues within the framework of this news.
As it is known, it was known that Turkey-Syria intelligence units met frequently, especially after the Sochi and Astana processes carried out together with Russia and Iran. This news showed that beyond the standard interview traffic, the roadmap for solving the problem has emerged, at least as a draft. I say draft because there are some important topics that if the right answers are not found, they can either make the solution largely impossible or expose these goals to radical revisions.
Well, what was in the details of this news?
In the beginning, the report referred to the Syrian President as "Asad", not "Esed". This was important in terms of showing that both the language used by the newspaper and the language of security sources had changed. While it was shared that military and intelligence officials met in Jordan-Aqaba with the initiative of "intermediary countries", no details were given about who these intermediaries were. It was stated that Turkey's priority was the reconstruction of Aleppo and the return of refugees in this direction. It was emphasized that 6 million people lived before, but now the population struggling with hunger and misery has decreased to 700 thousand. Turkey's conditions, “joint operation against PKK, reconstruction of Aleppo, return of refugees, opening of Hasaka-Qamishli and Latakia-Kesep gates and operation of Aleppo Organized Industrial Zone (OSB), the largest industrial center of the Middle East, to be made” was stated. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were also shown addresses for the reconstruction of Aleppo. It was emphasized that if Aleppo was rebuilt, at least 2.5 and 3 million Syrians would be able to return.
Now, let's try to voice some of the questions we're worried about over this important news.
The question of how other forces already active in Syria will approach these demands, which Syria has generally approached positively within the framework of the "Adana Protocol", is important in itself. Unfortunately, the reaction of America and Russia to these solution proposals has unfortunately become a determining factor for the continuation of the process.
When you go into the details, you can see that the PKK emphasized more in the news. No details were given about the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG), the umbrella organization of the PYD and YPG. The reason for this is not to confront the USA directly since the relationship between the United States of America (USA) and the SDF is known, or whether it is to separate the PKK and the PYD over the SDG, we will only be able to understand in time.
We do not yet know whether this approach is an attempt to make the SDF an interlocutor of the autonomous constitution in the “New Syria”. Because the possibility of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to implement a roadmap that the USA has not approved is almost non-existent, especially in this environment. As officially announced in the $ 768 billion defense budget approved by President Joe Biden, it is not difficult to predict how the United States will approach a possible intervention in the SDG, which receives a share from the budget. Considering Turkey's difficulties with the United States, it is also a matter of curiosity at this point how Turkey will take a stand against America's plans in Syria.
On the other hand, the condition of Syria, which remains silent on all these topics in general terms, was: "The continuation of the operation to the east of the Euphrates in Idlib later on." And this demand may be the harbinger of a complicated and dangerous process. Why? Because Idlib currently stands in the middle as the closest social and security threat for Turkey. It is not easy to predict how the groups controlling Idlib will act and how they will react in a possible operation. The United States specifically wanted the status quo in Idlib to continue and aimed to block the developments in the east of the Euphrates. In addition, Turkey undertook the removal of groups in Idlib in the Sochi and Astana agreements. Will these groups leave the area without any guarantee? If so, where will they go? It is clear that the guarantees they want, if any, will not only be the assurance of life safety. In this case, have there been studies on how nearly 3 million people living in Idlib will be affected by the developments? In addition, since it is stated that Iran has put forward difficult conditions, will these conditions be taken into account? It is known that there is a backlash against Iran with the results of the Iraqi elections.
Knowing this situation, what will be the approach of Iran to the change of position in Syria at the same time?
As a result, it is important that Turkey and Syria are in such negotiations that aim to achieve results despite everything. Even if this problem is resolved, it will leave significant effects and residues on Syria first and Turkey second. Unfortunately, the Syrian issue has turned into an equation with many unknowns, as the government carries out a process with individual reactions and approaches, rather than benefiting from historical and regional experiences.
The initiatives of the two countries are of course important. A process should be implemented to make cost calculations for other actors in the region. The harm that the conflict of interest can cause them should be revealed. Thus, meaningless dreams can be prevented and hope for a solution can arise in Syria.