A month is about to pass in Russia's invasion attempt. In the process that started on February 24 last month, there was still no result to stop the war. While the negotiations between the parties are continuing, the question of whether Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenski will come together has not yet been answered. The bitter face of the war, in which more than 3 million people had to take shelter in the surrounding countries and thousands of civilians lost their lives, started to become more and more evident day by day. While these were happening, the effects of the war, especially in economic terms, became more debatable. The fact that both countries are two important producers of the world, especially in wheat, is about to prevent their commercial and especially energy relations with Europe.
On the other hand, apart from European countries, we see that especially African countries have a high level of wheat dependency on these two countries. According to the UN's March 2022 data, countries such as Burundi, Congo, Madagascar, Togo and Mozambique have become almost 100% dependent on Russia for wheat. Countries such as Somalia, Tunisia, Mauritania, Libya and Gambia are also heavily dependent on Ukraine. And yet, everyone is now waiting for who will say "ahh" first. It is attributed to Timur. As an example of how he can beat his enemy, he takes his interlocutor's finger between his teeth. He jams his own finger between his teeth. He says start biting. He clenches his teeth as much as he can, both the person in front of him and himself. The one who gets hurt, so the first to say "Ahh" will lose. The interlocutor cannot stand it and leaves. This is how Timur shows that the enemy can be fought in this way.
Now, in the Russia-Ukraine War, there is still no one who says ahh literally. However, even if Russia actually wins at the end of the process, it does not seem possible to maintain this gain in the long run. Others trading with these two countries, including both European and African countries, have already begun to study different options for each commodity. However, this time, the costs began to increase. Although this situation is presented as understanding the importance of Russia, the situation in the Russian economy is not enough to give Putin the necessary instruments to continue the war for a long time. In other words, Russia is also facing significant losses. Then something is needed. It is necessary to do something to show Putin, who could not fully achieve the goals he wanted, and who could not even return, that stopping the war would also have important gains for him. So why is this needed?
Because Russia threatened Bosnia and Kosovo, which, like Finland and Sweden, started to discuss NATO membership. It said that you will end up like Ukraine. In this case, one should heed the war strategist Sun Tzu, who said, 'build a golden bridge so that your opponent can withdraw'. Putin is no longer thinking rationally. For the comeback, he needs something to present to his own public opinion, like a success story. It is this bridge of return made of gold that will stop Putin.