The whole world is wondering about the consequences of the Ukraine crisis. The answers to questions such as whether Russia will risk invading Ukraine or will it be content with annexing Donbas, the starting point of the problem, where the Russian separatists are in the majority, just like Crimea, have not been found yet.
While seeking answers to these questions, the United States Department of State asked the families of the embassy staff to leave Ukraine as of yesterday. The fact that this order came after US President Joe Biden's statement, "My guess is Russia will invade Ukraine," made this demand even more important. Questions about why America is making such statements and whether there are other plans behind it continue to occupy the minds.
However, Germany, the locomotive of the European Union, has announced that it will not send weapons to Ukraine. In fact, while Britain was carrying short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, Germany did not allow the use of its airspace. The UK carries out this transport process using the airspaces of Denmark and Poland. In addition, the Commander of the German Navy, Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach, said, “Putin demands respect. A little respect costs little and it's free. Russia deserves respect. Ukraine is not enough to become a NATO member. It is not possible for Crimea to return to Ukraine," even though he had to resign after his statement, he declared Germany's view of the crisis, namely, the obvious. The fact that Russia is Germany's foremost supplier of oil and natural gas provides many important clues to understand the reasons for Germany's stance. According to 2020 data, Germany imported 28 million tons of oil from Russia. In addition, the leading importer of Russian gas was Germany with 16 percent. And yet, the need of the German industry and society for gas and oil supplied from Russia is obvious.
That's why they don't want to come face to face with Russia. They are aware of the fact that they will be the first to be affected by a conflict, a war.
In fact, European countries do not have a different view from Germany. However, in order not to incur the wrath of NATO and the USA, they want to remain silent and manage the process in this way. Anyhow, where Germany takes a stand, their reaction will have no value. That's why they apply a "wait-and-see" policy without attracting lightning.
Despite all this, we are of the opinion that if the NATO membership of Ukraine, which is the red line of Russia, is removed from the agenda, it will not engage in a process such as an invasion. The fact that Ukraine is a NATO member means that Russia risks everything. On one side of Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind, of course, is the failure of the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan between 1979-1989. Besides, I don't know if a Vietnam will emerge from Ukraine, but some facts and Western support show that it will not be easy to eat. In addition, the difficulties that will come from being subject to economic sanctions will determine Russia's attitude at this point.
As a result, the territorial integrity of Ukraine should not be disrupted, and the region should not be dragged into an adventure. A turmoil in Ukraine could mean a new Syria for Turkey, not in terms of a wave of migration, but politically and economically. There must be ways to end the problem before it starts.