Media coverage of the local elections has been “fatalistic”, with few foreign observers forecasting any serious losses for the AKP, Silverman said, adding that it is within the ruling party’s power to overturn any major upsets if they do occur.
The AKP has a track record of success in Turkey’s major cities going back decades, and this time is competing alongside the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Moreover, the ruling party could use its mastery of the state to tip the balance during the vote count or even to dismiss victorious opposition mayors, Silverman said.
However, the elections are still significant as a gauge of the AKP’s popularity, and the economic travails that have beset Turkey over the past year could significantly dampen public enthusiasm for the party.
Turkey has experienced very high inflation and a significant slide in the lira since last year, and this has had knock on effects on citizens and businesses.
Added to this are the difficulties of integrating the approximately 4 million refugees who are living in Turkey, mostly from Syria. The presence of a large refugee population has caused frustrations, as locals fear they are taking jobs and driving wages down, Silverman said.
Nevertheless, the AKP and Erdoğan “are not going anywhere soon,” and the party’s determination to keep control of the major cities means it is unlikely they will countenance losses in Istanbul and Ankara.
However, there are significant provinces that have a good chance of changing hands either way, particularly in border regions where frustration with AKP refugee policies is more marked, Silverman said.