Eryurt evaluated the current situation regarding Turkey's population projection to AA correspondent.
Prof. Dr. Eryurt said that Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies and other institutions are working on population projections, but the official population projections for Turkey are made by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).
"The new population projection results will be shared soon, but according to the most recently announced 2018-2080 projection results, Turkey's population is expected to exceed 104 million by 2050 and 107 million by 2080," he said.
Noting that the United Nations (UN) has made population projections for all countries, Eryurt stated that according to the UN's population projections for Turkey, the country's population is expected to approach 96 million by 2050, and then begin to decline and fall to 82 million in 2100.
Noting that there are different scenarios for both TURKSTAT and UN projections, Eryurt stated that the estimation of Turkey's population of 100 million has been talked about for a long time. Eryurt continued as follows:
"Projection results of TURKSTAT indicate that this will happen. However, if you ask my personal opinion, even in the UN projection pointing to a lower population, the assumption of the total fertility rate, that is, the average number of children per woman, is 1.88 for Turkey, and according to the 2022 birth statistics announced by TURKSTAT, the total fertility rate is 1.62. Families seem to be starting to have fewer children now. Although the fertility level has decreased, our population continues to increase due to the population momentum, in technical terms, since a large generation that was included in the population at the time of the high fertility level is in the reproductive age today. But that effect is gradually disappearing. According to TUIK data, while the annual population growth rate was 12.7 per thousand in 2021, it became 7.1 per thousand in 2022. Therefore, assuming that if this trend continues, there will be no population increase due to migration, the probability of Turkey's population reaching 100 million seems weak with natural increase dynamics."
- "THE EARTHQUAKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS"
Eryurt stated that the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake on 6 February affected a region where approximately 16 million people live, including the Syrian refugees under temporary protection.
"The earthquake zone is a region with a higher proportion of children and young people compared to Turkey's average. The earthquake has the potential to have significant demographic effects. Migration will not be the only result of the earthquake. There will also be changes in marriage and fertility behaviors," he added.
Eryurt explained that it is much more important, especially in this period, for the relevant public institutions to share their data with the public and researchers in order to find solutions to the disruptive effects of the earthquake.
Pointing out that the process requires planned action, Eryurt said that needs analysis studies and intervention programs should be updated periodically and acted accordingly.
- "IT WOULD NOT BE WRONG TO SAY WE HAVE A VERY OLD POPULATION"
Stating that the population in Turkey is aging rapidly, Eryurt said, "When we say elderly population, we mean the population aged 65 and over. With the concept of aging of the population, we express the tendency to increase the share of the elderly population in the total population."