U.S.-based news outlets have reported that Washington has given Turkey until mid-June to cancel its plans of buying Russia's S-400 air defence system or face sanctions. Washington regards the Russian missiles as incompatible with NATO systems and posing a special danger for the F-35 stealth fighter, the next mainstay of U.S. airpower that Ankara also plans to require.
Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party is facing a threat in Istanbul, as the city of 16 million prepares for a mayoral revote next month following a contested defeat on March 31, the article said.
A more immediate threat to Erdoğan, however, Gardner wrote, is the row between Turkey and the United States over defence procurement.
‘’Sealing the S-400 deal would be a diplomatic triumph for President Vladimir Putin of Russia. It would punch a hole in Nato solidarity and perhaps even undermine its security. The stakes are high,’’ said Gardner.
While Ankara has remained firm on the deal, saying there would be no backing down on the S-400 system, it could very well be bracing for sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Gardner wrote.
Analysts have said Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 air and missile defence system would mark the realignment of Ankara’s interests away from Washington and toward Moscow.
Meanwhile, in Syria, ‘’Erdogan has become beholden to Mr Putin’’ as part of a fragile tripod of power in the war-torn country alongside Russia and Iran.
‘’If Mr Erdogan jilts the Russians on the S-400s, Mr Putin could intensify the Russian air force’s offensive against the last Syrian rebel enclave, in Idlib, north-west Syria, where Turkey has a dozen military posts,’’ Gardner stressed.
Turkey’s occupation of two Syrian enclaves around Idlib is only possible with Russia’s consent, he added.
If both issues collide, the Turkish leader could find himself facing a serious predicament all the while battling runaway inflation, high unemployment and a collapsing currency in his country, Gardner said.