Thus, the importance of the March 31 vote is beyond words, as the results could stop President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party or hand him a license to rule the country for the next four years.
The campaign process has been deeply unfair. But there are three major problems in Turkey that have enormous negative social and economic impacts and that even the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) cannot hide. They are the economic crisis, rising authoritarianism and isolation in foreign policy. Though the AKP has tightened its grip on the country, given the scale of social and economic problems, authoritarianism and propaganda could easily fall short in persuading people not to vote for the opposition.
But ballot security is a great concern and interference in vote tallying and registration processes are always possible. The voting process is still very much traditional – the ballot boxes are taken to local centres for counting and so are vulnerable during the transfer.
Local elections have another importance with regards to the survival of Turkish democracy.
When it comes to the various election scenarios and their potential impact on politics, there are a number of important issues. To begin with, the red line for the AKP is securing more than 38 percent of the vote, the party’s share in the 2009 local elections, which took place during the global economic crisis.
Any result of 38 percent or above would be politically acceptable for Erdoğan. But if the AKP’s share drops below that mark, it would be significant. It would mean the end of AKP exceptionalism. It would be concrete proof that a large portion of voters is abandoning its ideological voting behaviour and embracing a more pragmatic approach. That would be a clear defeat for the AKP.
The municipal elections in individual key cities such as Ankara, Istanbul and Bursa could also impact national politics. No matter what the level of AKP support nationwide, if the opposition win two of these cities, it will be seen as an AKP defeat.
Ankara is a special case. Even if the AKP secures a nationwide vote of close to 38 percent and retains Istanbul, I don’t believe Erdoğan would allow opposition candidate Mansur Yavaş to run the capital.