Ahmet Güldal, General Manager of Turkish Grain Board (TMO), who participated in the workshop on "Agriculture of Future on the Axis of Climate Change" by the Seed Growers Sub-Union in Antalya, attended by approximately 1,500 farmers, held a chat meeting with a group of journalists.
Güldal, who made important evaluations about TMO stocks, grain imports, determination of purchase price and the new harvest period, stated that they are worried about the loss of yield due to the decrease in the use of certified seeds, rather than the decrease in fertilizer use.
Expressing that as TMO, they turned their faces towards the new harvest period, Güldal said that in October this year, the precipitation increased by 32 percent compared to the previous year, and this is a pleasing situation. Emphasizing that there is no vacant land in arable land, Güldal said, “But there is only this; the farmer plants barley instead of wheat, and pulses instead of barley. In other words, there is a shift between the products,” he said.
“A SERIOUS LOSS OF PRODUCTION NOT EXPECTED”
Reminding the increase in fertilizer prices, Güldal stated that contrary to the general expectations, they do not expect a serious yield loss due to the decrease in fertilizer use. Güldal explained the reason for this as follows:
“We are a nation that uses fertilizers excessively. The effect of the fertilizer you put on the soil this year will continue the next year. Therefore, the farmer who used a normal fertilizer last year will not have any problems this year, even if he does not use any fertilizer at all. In other words, the farmer will not experience a decrease in yield.”
Explaining that the problem in yield loss will be due to the decrease in the use of certified seeds rather than fertilizers, Güldal said, “Certified seeds increase the yield by 25 percent. This year, the use of certified seeds has decreased due to the increase in costs. This will directly affect the yield loss.”
“IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT RAIN, THE CROP WILL NOT GO BELOW 20 MILLION TONS”
Reminding that according to the figures announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), Turkey's wheat production decreased to 17,7 million tons in 2021 due to the drought, regarding his expectations for the new harvest period, Güldal said: “The current rainfall is better than last October, but there are two things that are important for us. First, the farmer has to use more or less fertilizer in March. But the end of April and May rains we experienced in 2021 are more importantly. We experienced a serious loss of yield as there was no such rainfall in the last period. If April and May rains will be good this year, our wheat harvest will not fall below 20 millions.”
“INCREASE IN INPUT COSTS WILL BE CONSIDERED WHILE DETERMINING THE PURCHASE PRICE”
Stating that there have been serious increases in the input costs of the farmer this year, Güldal pointed out that all these cost increases will be taken into account when determining the purchase price. “When the harvest period comes, we calculate the cost again. When calculating the cost, we calculate the fertilizer as if the farmer has fully used the fertilizer, the seed as if he has used the seed with a certificate, and the loan interest even if he does not use any credit. We look at the domestic market and the foreign market. We will prepare a price that Manufacturer can say, 'at this price, I am satisfied,' and we announce it,” Güldal added.
“WHEAT PRICES STARTED TO DECREASE IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY”
Güldal stated that due to the decrease in exchange rates, there was a regression of 1,000 Turkish Liras (TL) per ton in the wheat price in the market, and that wheat prices decreased from 5,500 TL/ton to 4,500 TL/ton.
Noting that there was a regression in wheat prices in the foreign market, Güldal stated that the price of bread wheat increased to 385 dollars in the import tender they held in November, but the prices decreased to 359 dollars in the import tender held on December 21.
Güldal, who attributed the main reason for the increase in wheat prices in the world this year to the 'conservation stocks of the low producing countries', said, "India, China, Egypt and Arabia imported to make reserve stocks. Seller countries also tend to sell or not. They even levied tax so as not to sell. These, in turn, caused the price of wheat to rise.”
“WE SIGNED A COMMITMENT WITH 366 OF 510 FLOUR FACTORIES IN DECEMBER”
Güldal also gave information about the wheat sales given to flour mills at low prices in order not to increase the bread prices in the market, and noted that there are around 500-510 active flour factories in Turkey, and they signed a contract with 383 of these bakeries in November and 366 in December. Stating that they implemented the flour price of 185-200 TL in November and December with this commitment they made with flour mills, Güldal said, “Our aim is to offer bread to the market at a reasonable price. We will impose sanctions on those who do not comply with this practice. With these sanctions, wheat cannot be requested from TMO for a period of one year. All field services of the Ministry of Commerce participated in the audit together with us through the provincial trade directorates. We also gave financial penalties to people who have a lot of problems. In the beginning, loyalty was 90 percent, then it went up to 98 percent." Güldal did not give any information about the duty loss due to low wheat sales.