Sanctions imposed on Turkey by the United States on Monday under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) are likely to have several effects, highlighting the growing divergence in strategic thinking between the two NATO allies.
US President Donald Trump’s administration imposed sanctions for Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system, which the US has said is incompatible with NATO equipment and a potential threat to allied security.
The sanctions targeted Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries, the country’s military procurement agency, its chief Ismail Demir and three other senior officials.
The ejection of Turkey from the F-35 stealth jet programme in July 2019 demonstrated just how serious Washington was in relaying its displeasure at Turkey’s insistence it bought Russian air defence equipment rather than American.
Turkey, an integral part of the programme, was to be one of the few recipients of the advanced, next-generation F-35, as it was, and still is, a key member of NATO.
Turkey’s removal and now sanctions, the first of their kind against a key ally, indicate the crack in diplomatic relations is now in danger of becoming a rift as Turkey’s strategic needs diverge with those of the US.
Turkey’s future in NATO
With positions rapidly hardening between Washington and Ankara the potential, for a Turkish exit from NATO is now a possibility.
The strategic picture for all NATO members has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War.
Designed to contain the then Soviet Union, NATO has constantly sought to renew itself and its mission but the founding principle that led to its creation, Russian containment, is not lost on Russia who would be more than happy to see the alliance dissolve.
While there is little danger of NATO crumbling, there is no doubt the alliance would be dealt a serious blow if Turkey were to leave.
There is precedence for a split from NATO, France withdrew from the alliance’s command structure in 1967 only to rejoin years later in 2009.
But Turkey is NATO’s largest contributor of military personnel after the US.
The Alliance would be dealt a blow it would be hard to recover from, especially as NATO’s focus has now changed.
The world is a very different place from when Turkey joined in 1952 and as the threat of a vast Russian invasion of the West recedes, Turkey increasingly looks to its own strategic needs and concerns.